A recent study conducted by the Commercial Real Estate Finance Council (CREFC), one of country’s largest commercial real estate trade groups, shows an almost even split on where we are in the commercial real estate cycle.
Just about 55 percent of the members opined that the commercial real estate cycle has reached it’s peak while 43 percent say that we have a ways to go.
The majority of members, which include mammoth asset manager firm BlackRock and many top developers, did agree that they expect economic condition in 2017 to improve over 2016.
In an interview with The Real Deal reporter Will Parker, CREFC president Linda Pendergast attributed some of the optimism to the election of Donald Trump and a pro-business Republican majority in the House and Senate: ” “Regardless of anyone’s political views, there’s very little argument that the election of Donald Trump , with an undivided House, Senate and White House that are now aligned, has revived the animal spirits of the market place,”
What most members are hoping for is that the Trump administration moves aggressively to curtail the Dodd-Frank rules of risk-retention for commercial paper. With that in mind the poll also show that members expect Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities (CMBS) to climb to somewhere between $75 billion and $100 billion in 2017. While that would certainly be a marked improvement from 2016 it would still be way below the 2013 peak ft $230 billion.